I’ve gotten several emails along these lines:

Dear Jonah,
I read about you asking for an argument as to why Hezbollah would not
control Lebanon if Syria withdraws. I am Christian Lebanese and here is my
take:
1- Syrian presence is not keeping Hezbollah in check but is giving it a
role beyond its natural size.
2- The support of Hizbollah is limited to a part of the Shiite community
which has a plurality but is still a minority in Lebanon.
3- Any attempt by Hizbollah to expand beyond Shiite areas will unite all
Lebanese against it. Hizballah knows that the West will arm the Christians
and Druze against Hezbollah in such an event. Hezbollah will never attempt
such a thing.
4- Most Hezbollah supporters are not interested in living under Islamic
law but only in the social benefits Hezbollah gives them and which is paid
for by Iran. Hezbollah gave up enforcing Islamic law even in areas it
controls. It’s all about money. If the money flow is turned off, Hezbollah
will shrink to a fraction of its size.
5- The Lebanese Parliament has 128 seats divided 64-64 Christian-Muslim.
On the muslim half, the Shiites get only 27 seats. This the theoretical
ceiling of Shiite power. Today they only have 12 seats.
6- In a free Lebanon, Hezbollah will not have the power to continue its
fight against Israel. The Christians will call for peace with Israel. The
Druze and Sunnis will say not before peace in Israel-Palestine is
achieved. But Christians, Druze, and Sunnis will oppose Hezbollah exposing
Lebanon to Israeli retaliation. The net result will be the return to 1949
armistice agreement. It is the Syrian presence that allowed Hezbollah go
against the will of the majority. Without Syria, Hezbollah’s hands are
tied.
Thank You