For years, the conventional wisdom has been that Turkey’s national interests are inconsistent with the aspirations of Iraqi Kurds for explicit autonomy or outright independence. A Kurdistan in Northern Iraq would inflame Kurdish nationalism in Turkey, the argument goes, and gave Kurdish guerillas a secure base from which to launch attacks. In addition, the population of Turkmen in Northern Iraq would suffer under a breakaway regime.

Not so, says a new report by the Ankara-based International Strategic Research Organization. It urges the Turkish government to come up with a “Plan B” in case sectarian violence in Iraq leads to a partition and formal status for Kurdistan. The real enemy of Turkey is not Kurdish independence, the report suggests, but “chaos and civil war in Northern Iraq.” By cultivating rather than alienating the Kurds, and fostering cooperation among Kurds and Turkmen against common foes, Turkey can increase its influence at the expense of other powers in the region – yes, including the United States.