The new Evans-Novak Political Report discusses the political scene in Louisiana:

If Rep. Bobby Jindal (R) wins the race for governor this fall — and indications are that he will — then the governor and one senator will be Republicans. Of course part of the thinking, voiced publicly by no one, is that the state’s black population in New Orleans largely disappeared with Hurricane Katrina, significantly diminishing the base vote for Landrieu.

To say that “the state’s black population in New Orleans largely disappeared” is just plain wrong, even though a lot of Democrats may say something like it if Jindal does in fact win in November. What effect did the hurricane actually have on black demography? Here’s a graf on this very question, from my article on Jindal in the May 14 NRODT:

If Jindal wins this fall, he’ll become the first non-white governor of Louisiana since P. B. S. Pinchback, the son of a freed slave who held the office for 35 days in the 1870s. Although many will see this as a sign of progress in multiracial America, some pundits will attribute a Jindal victory to Louisiana’s post-Katrina demography — and specifically to the reduced number of heavily Democratic black voters. “Things have shifted less than some people think,” counters Greg Rigamer, a consultant who worked for Blanco four years ago but this time is with Jindal. Many people who left New Orleans, for instance, didn’t leave the state and they’ll still vote. Some who did leave the state probably wouldn’t have voted anyway. The bottom line, according to Rigamer, is that there will be perhaps 40,000 fewer black voters this year, in a race that probably will see 1.6 million ballots cast. That’s about 2.5 percent. Will it matter? “If Jindal wins by less than 50,000 votes, then it will be possible to say that Katrina gave him a more favorable electorate,” concludes Rigamer.