That’s when the Taliban will return to Kabul, according to this pessimistic piece from the British network ITN about a new analysis from the Senlis Council:

The report says: “The insurgency now controls vast swaths of unchallenged territory including rural areas, some district centres, and important road arteries. “The Taliban are the de facto governing authority in significant portions of territory in the south and east, and are starting to control parts of the local economy and key infrastructure such as roads and energy supply.” The report adds: “The insurgency also exercises a significant amount of psychological control, gaining more and more political legitimacy in the minds of the Afghan people who have a long history of shifting alliances and regime change.” The researchers highlight growing lawlessness in the border areas with Pakistan, an “almost endless” stream of recruits driven by poverty, and ideological support from al-Qaeda as important factors. Often Nato and Afghan Government forces fight battles for territory which turn out to be “pyrrhic” because they have no way of defending it. The report adds: “The depressing conclusion is that, despite the vast injections of international capital flowing into the country, and a universal desire to ‘succeed’ in Afghanistan, the state is once again in serious danger of falling into the hands of the Taliban.

However, it would be wise to interpret the pessimism in light of the fact that the Senlis Council began life as an anti-drug war organization, broadening to general work on Afghanistan after frustration at the allies’ continued eradication of the poppy crop (I happen to disagree with the eradication policy, too, but just keep it in mind).