There are new numbers from Gallup today on general party preferences for this November’s congressional elections. In response to the question, “As of today do you lean more toward the Democratic Party’s candidate or the Republican Party’s candidate?” 52 percent said Democrats, while 42 percent said Republicans. (By the way, the Gallup pollsters rotated the names of the parties as they asked respondents the question.)

The Democratic number has been as high as 55 percent, last month, and as low as 49 percent, in January. The Republican number has been as high as 43 percent, in February, and as low as 39 percent, last month.

Gallup asked the same question throughout 1994. In March of that year, 50 percent of those polled said they leaned toward the Democrats, while 41 percent said they leaned toward Republicans. By July 1994, however, that had changed, with 45 percent choosing Democrats and 46 percent choosing Republicans. Then, by the fall, momentum appeared to have shifted back to the Democrats. In October, 49 percent said they leaned toward the Democrats, while 45 percent said Republicans.

What does that mean? Well, it’s impossible to say whether this year has much in common with 1994, when Republicans picked up 50 seats in the House. But as Major Garrett, author of The Enduring Revolution: How the Contract with America Continues to Shape the Nation, points out, this time Democrats, 15 seats away from the majority, don’t need a 1994-style tsunami. A good solid storm surge will do.