The conventional wisdom among pundits, and I’m told among many Democrats in Washington, is that the Feb. 3 contests are shaping up as a 5-1-1 result. Edwards wins South Carolina, but not by much; Clark wins Oklahoma, but not by much; and Kerry wins everything else, often by much. This certainly is the way it looks right now, based on the publicly available polls, but a couple of cautions. First, polling for presidential preference in a state that has had candidates on the air for only a couple of days is very different from polling in a state like Iowa and New Hampshire. There’s more of a possibility of fluidity, of last-minute switching. You’ll notice, for example, that in polls where undecided voters are pressed aggressively to indicate their leanings (e.g. Zogby), John Kerry’s number are spiking. He’s the frontrunner and getting the most media attention, so that makes sense. But last-minute advertising might induce undecideds to go another way.

The second caution is not to overlook the possibility of something contrary to expectations happening in New Mexico. I say that only because the anti-Kerry candidates seem to be spending an inordinate amount of time and dollars there, and the public polling is spotty. Maybe they know something the rest of us don’t. Or, given who we are talking about, maybe not.