Now Jonathan Rauch is trying to show that my “simple correlations” don’t work for Holland by comparing the trajectory of the gay marriage debate and the out-of-wedlock birthrate in the United States. Rauch is unconvincing for several reasons. First, my so-called simple correlations actually include a detailed analysis of factors other than gay marriage. (See “No Explanation.”) That’s what allows me to make the case that the Dutch correlations are more than just fortuitous. On the other hand, Rauch’s story about the United States includes no analysis of important events like, the easy passage of the Defense of Marriage Act in 1996 (very different from the trajectory of Dutch public opinion after the gay marriage debate began there). And of course, Rauch says nothing about welfare reform or the growing American conviction that “Dan Quayle was right.” That’s why Rauch’s supposed parallel analysis for the U.S. in no way reveals problems with my own discussion of The Netherlands.