J-Pod,

I don’t yet subscribe to the notion that changes in the primary schedule weaken the influence of the early states. It’s an unsettled question at least, and indeed it’s possible that the early results could be amplified in the news cycle because of the tight time frame. In other words, if Romney stays strong in Iowa and New Hampshire, and Thompson snags South Carolina, I’m not convinced that Giuliani will simply be able to rebound in Florida. The field will be winnowed to three (at least by then, if not far earlier), McCain voters will break mostly to the two conservatives, and things could look very different.

I’m not paying much heed at all to the national numbers, including those from Rasmussen (my old friend and former chairman). Voters in the Feb. 5 states and beyond are paying little attention right now, and responding mainly on name recognition and vague impressions. Talk about poll numbers going poof — that’s more a problem for Giuliani than for the others, it seems to me.

p.s. By the way, thanks for all the emails, Ron Paul supporters, I like him and I get it. We’re talking actual electoral politics here, though. And no thanks to the emails from the bigots.