Here an e-mail that cites a Mac Owens New York Post piece I meant to link to earlier:

Subject: “downturn” in Iraq?
Rich:
I believe your comment illustrates the Administration’s problem in a nutshell: conditions have not taken a downturn, and in fact the Iraqi and U.S. armed forces are on the offensive. However, the limited view that most American’s have of events in Iraq make it seem like a downturn.
In brief:
First the terrorists attacked the U.S. armed forces – then when the U.S. got too tough they attacked the Iraqi army – then when that army got too tough they attacked the Iraqi police forces – now that the police forces can protect themselves the terrorists are left with attacking the innocent. At the same time, we are moving to roll up their supply lines – please refer to this Mack Owens oped in the NY Post.
However, from the perspective of the public, every day the headline is “X killed in Iraq”. In my opinion, the Administration and the Defense Department are so afraid of repeating the Viet Nam mistake of prematurely declaring victory that they are unwilling to describe their unmistakable progress. This may lead to the very end result you are afraid of, but it’s not for the reason you declare.
There is a parallel with Viet Nam that is not often mentioned in the press. Eventually we are going to each an equilibrium in Iraq – we may stop 90% of all terror activities but will be unable to stop that last 10%. The only way to win will be to shut off the flow of money and men at their sources: Syria and Iran as the proximate sources and Saudi Arabia as the ultimate source. I get the impression that the Administration does not have the stomach to do this – certainly they will not do anything aggressive in the last 18 months of this term. That means an on-going stalemate, and that is exactly what we cannot allow.