Way I see it, Stanley, we are rolling forward on iron rails.

—-The Grand Bargain will not bring forth any effective sanctions; or, if it does, they will quickly be undermined by powers (want me to name a couple?) who believe they have a right to do anything they can get away with doing, without much reference to any document they may have signed their names to in some prior episode of responsible-statesmanship posturing; and who do not perceive getting the U.S.A. off any hook as being among their vital national interests.

—-There will be no consensus in the US (let alone anywhere else) for military action.

—-Iran will go nuclear; then, two to five years later, thermonuclear.

—-There will be no consensus in the US (let alone anywhere else) for military action.

—-Neighboring big states (Egypt, S.A., Turkey) will go nuclear.

—-A bomb or two will be misplaced, stolen, or handed off to some nonstate actor.

—-A Western city will be destroyed.

—-There will then be a consensus for military action… which, given that the big ME players are now all robustly nuclear, will unfortunately be impossible.

That is what is going to happen, Stanley. Iron rails.