The biggest problem that I see in the GOP field at the moment is that there is such a striking gap between the national frontrunner, and the frontrunner(s) in early states. Rudy has maintained a very solid national lead since he joined the race, going on 10 months ago. Even with today’s Rasmussen slippage, he is solidly ahead.

Because we think he will also pick up swing votes in blue states like California, New Jersey, Pa, etc… this makes him a good bet in a general election.

At the same Romney seems to have the best ground operations in Iowa and New Hampshire — and if he comes roaring out of both, the momentum could possibly get him the nomination.

However — if a candidate who can’t break 12% in the national GOP polls get the nod, it is a sure bet that he will lose in the general. The discrepancy between the artificial game in Iowa, NH, and SC, and the reality of general support will be too big to hope to overcome. Once our candidate has the nomination, it’s time to face the other party’s candidate — not to start wooing the 88% of likely GOP voters who aren’t interested.

So — considering that Rudy (who I am supporting) is counting on some too clever by half scheme that is supposed to circumvent Iowa and NH, it isn’t a bad thing to see the field narrowing. That will make it more likely that someone who isnt the frontrunner can attract GOP support.

On the other hand — the Giuliani campaign is getting more serious about NH, for one. I just got an email asking for volunteers from New York to get on busses to NH to go door to door tomorrow. Love to see how that works out…