Andy, thanks for flagging Frank’s piece. If I may point out one thing, which Frank does not discuss: Analysts often talk about different factions and power centers in Iran, and see such differences as cause for optimism. In this Baghdad conference, the U.S. will be sitting down with representatives of the Iranian foreign ministry. Whatever the factional politics, Iranian diplomats are among the least influential members of the Islamic Republic. They have no power over Iranian policy or behavior. I’m sorry to link to my own work—always poor form—but here’s an essay (previously linked to) which outlines the history of Iranian diplomatic lying.