Wow! It really could happen. If things keep going like this, Arlen Specter will be facing retirement on April 27th. A couple of interesting points about those new poll figures showing Congressman Pat Toomey now trailing Specter by just 6 points (46 percent of “certain” voters back the incumbent, 40 percent support the conservative challenger, and the rest are undecided in this survey conducted for KDKA-TV in Pittsburgh and WNEP-TV in Wilkes Barre April 3-5 by SurveyUSA). First off, this new survey uses the same methodolgy, etc. as in there previous SurveyUSA sampling (which, two weeks ago, showed Toomey pulling to within 9 points of the liberal incumbent) — so we’re comparing apples to apples when we look at how the numbers are trending. What was of particular note in the previous poll (conducted in mid-March) was that Toomey trailed Specter among self-described “conservatives” (43 to 39 percent) and even among “pro-life” voters (41 to 39 percent). In the new poll, however, Toomey is passing Specter among these two critical groups — Toomey now leads among “conservatives” by 47 to 42 percent, and among abortion foes by 47 to 41 percent. That’s a big swing in a little over two weeks, and there’s nothing to indicate that the pendulum won’t keep swinging Toomey’s way up to primary day. Obviously his message is resonating with his natural base. (By the way, the latest poll sampled 490 “certain” voters, while the previous sampled 399 — so one can take some assurance that the new poll’s figures are even more reflective of voter sentiment than the previous edition’s.) All in all, this poll is very good news for Pat Toomey. VERRRRY good news. Click here to see all the juicy numbers. Only those in complete denial will not see that Arlen Specter is now fighting for his political life, and surely Arlen himself isn’t in denial. He’ll call in every chit and favor he can in order to stop what would be (will be?) a historic upset . So don’t be surprised in the next two weeks if you read about conservative Republican senators flocking to the Keystone State to spin the folks there about how my-close-pal Arlen is about as conservative a lawmaker as you’ll ever meet and why he’s needed back on Capitol Hill for another six years — but that should be tame to what else may happen before the votes are tallied. It’s going to get ugly. But as the saying goes, it’s always darkest before the dawn.