Here’s Ross Douthat’s reading of the Pew numbers. He sees that McCain’s diminished standing with white evangelicals vis a vis Bush’s in 2004 is more problematic than the fact that Obama is a point behind where Kerry was with that voting bloc. Ross’ point is shrewd and worth noting but let me add a few small quibbles.

My point was about media coverage, not emphasizing Obama’s evangelical problem over McCain’s. McCain’s travails with evangelical voters have been well-covered (e.g. Dobson’s statement saying he wouldn’t support McCain), whereas Obama’s overt attempts to woo the same voting bloc have been celebrated and hyped by the media in the absence of any evidence they’re working. Correcting the record there seems useful.

I might also add that I think Bush’s standing among evangelicals might be something of an outlier. I’m not sure that McCain — or most any other G.O.P. candidate — could reasonably be expected to bring out evangelicals the way Bush did, particularly as an incumbent.

In that sense, the more accurate comparison is not where the candidates stood in 2004, but in 2000 when Bush was more of an unknown quantity. Even then, it’s worth noting that Bush was running as an evangelical, he had the early backing of key evangelical leaders and campaign themes and domestic policy programs (Olasky’s compassionate conservatism and faith-based initiatives etc.) were tailor made to bring out evangelicals. McCain may be down eight points from where Bush was with evangelicals in 2004, but he’s only down four from where Bush was in 2000, Obama is down three points from where Gore was in 2000.

Then again, Bush’s uncomfortably close margins of victory mean that any shift among evangelicals has major electoral implications, and Douthat’s wise to call attention to this.