Nagourney reports that Reid

has done what he could to choose his opponent. Jon Porter, a three-term member of Congress, was considered one of Reid’s toughest potential foes — until he was defeated in 2008 by a Democrat, Dina Titus, who benefited from the largess of Reid’s political operation. Last August, Dean Heller, a Republican member of Congress and another potentially strong challenger, called Reid to tell him that he would be sitting this one out; Nevada Democrats suspect Heller reconsidered the wisdom of abandoning a safe seat to challenge an incumbent with $25 million in the bank. That leaves a bench of second-tier candidates like Tarkanian and Lowden, who have far less campaign experience, money and institutional backing than Reid.That might be the single-best thing going for him right now.

This would have been a very smart mood in a typical year. It might backfire in an anti-incumbent, pro-outsider year (a year that could very well see Rand Paul win a Senate seat in Kentucky).