Ross Douthat argues, correctly I think, that John McCain and Rudy Giuliani are heterodox in ways that will hurt them in the primaries without helping them in the general election. Fred Thompson’s appeal, meanwhile, is that he is (mostly) a down-the-line supporter of Republican positions, and conventional Republicanism is not a winning platform for 2008. I disagree with some specific points in Douthat’s analysis–I don’t believe it is at all plausible that Republicans will be able to “distance” themselves from Iraq–but he is right that the dynamics of this primary race are not helping conservatives.