There has been some interesting discussion of how it might play out in 2008. At this point, all we can do is speculate. But it seems to me our analysis goes off track if we think that the problem is limited to evangelical Christian Republicans’ alleged dislike for anyone who is not “born again.” Evangelicals alone can’t explain why only one non-Protestant has made it to the presidency.

I suspect that it’s the interplay of the social issues and Romney’s Mormonism that will matter. It may be, that is, that a pro-choice Mormon can’t win the Republican nomination and that a pro-life Mormon can’t win the general election. Evangelicals are hardly the only Americans who find Mormonism a bit strange. As for whether a Republican will ever be able to win the party’s presidential nomination without being “born again”: I think the answer to that question is obvious, at least if a conventional definition of the phrase “born again” is being used. It was only nine years ago that a Republican who wasn’t born again won his party’s presidential nomination, and the influence of evangelicals on the party wasn’t much lower then than it is now.

A Catholic, or non-born again Protestant, can win the nomination, especially if he has solid conservative credentials. If Jeb Bush had a different last name, he would already be the leading contender for the nomination, and he’s a Catholic.