Had an interesting conversation with a top Republican senate aide the other day, who has come to the dispiriting conclusion that nothing is as important to the GOP’s fortunes this November as the facts on the ground in Iraq and that the U.S. doesn’t have ultimate control over them.

“I guess that makes Muqtada al-Sadr the most important man in American politics,” I said.

“Yes,” he said, laughing–ruefully.