William Safire has an important Op-Ed today on same-sex marriage. Safire’s position on the issue is difficult to divine. On the one hand, he seems to call the drive for gay marriage, “at least premature.” On the other hand, later in the piece, in a mode partially resigned to gay marriage, Safire expresses the hope that gay unions will somehow revive heterosexual marriage. (No way.) But it’s Safire’s political assessments that rivet. Safire sees that the gay marriage issue is now in play, with every candidate for political office likely to be asked about it. And despite (or maybe because of) his personally libertarian leanings, Safire argues against dismissing religious opponents of gay marriage as mindless bigots. Most important, Safire predicts that “even if the next three appointees are Scalia clones,” the Supreme Court will force all the states to recognize gay marriages performed in Massachusetts–this despite 35 states and the federal government having passed laws against such recognition. So it’s clear that, on Safire’s assessment, if you oppose gay marriage, the Federal Marriage Amendment is your only alternative. The likelihood of nationalized gay marriage is real, and the Federal Marriage Amendment is the only way to stop it. (I’ll have more on the legalities of all this after Massachusetts.) That’s why Majority Leader Frist’s announcement of support for FMA is so important. Looks like the battle has already begun. After Massachusetts, it explodes.