Should John Warner decide not to run for reelection next year, Virginia conservatives have little hope of trading up. Rep. Tom Davis of northern Virginia is Warner’s heir apparent. Some observers speculate that Sen. Warner is delaying the announcement of his plans in order to boost the nomination prospects of Davis, who is better known than most other potential candidates. Neither Warner nor Davis is a social conservative and both are unwilling to stick with the surge in Iraq. Yesterday, Tom Davis’s appearance at a local antiwar town hall was a revealing exercise in how a politician’s position on Iraq can fail to appeal to anyone. I caught the last bit of his appearance on C-SPAN last night.

Davis sees “anarchy” rather than a civil war in Iraq, which has been “the only war financed with tax cuts.” He understood the audience’s distrust of General Petreaus, but pointedly pointed out that when he testifies “he will be under oath.” Davis was one of 17 House Republicans to vote against the surge. He wants Congress to adopt the Iraq Study Group’s recommendations, believing that Syria and Iran can be constructive partners in Iraq. He has been to Syria for discussions with its leaders, and noted “I was not critical of Speaker Pelosi.”

His audience, who had prepared the banner welcoming him to their meeting – “Representative Davis, Stand With Us, End the War” – was unhappy. Conservatives in Virginia feel their pain.