I have been asked by readers what the worst-case scenario could be after the passage of the health-care bill. Obviously, we know that the changes in the bill will cost much more than predicted. The result will be more taxes, or more debt, or more money printed (which will turn into inflation), or very likely a mix of the three. Either way, this is a fiscal train wreck.

As if that’s not bad enough, much worse can happen. As we know, unintended consequences are real, and they always lead to a worse situation that any of us expected. Another way to say this is, “The road to hell is paved with good intentions.” For instance, the health-care bill is supposed to extend health-care coverage to everyone. Those who don’t have it will have to pay a penalty.

The unintended consequence is the following: How long will it take for people, individuals and businesses, to realize that they are better off not getting health care and paying the penalty? They can just get insurance once they need it, since people who are sick can no longer be denied health-care coverage.

If that happens, we can expect insurance companies to go under very quickly. Basically, many healthy people won’t get insurance because the penalty is cheaper than the insurance. However, once they get really sick they will seek coverage and won’t be denied. Insurance companies will find themselves with a gigantic pool of sick people.

In this worst-case scenario, the government will use the opportunity, or as Rahm Emanuel likes to say, won’t let the crisis go to waste, and will likely jump in and take over the insurance business. That’s the short road to a single-payer system.