Steve Chapman challenged me to make empirically verifiable predictions about the consequences of gay marriage. I offered five. But I would like to offer a sixth prediction: Only a small minority of gay couples will seek gay marriages where they are available.

This is relevant to one of the core arguments now made for gay marriage: that it will help gay couples and their children achieve stability, monogamy, and (possibly) sexual fidelity.

I predict that after an initial burst of enthusiasm driven by its symbolic availability, relatively few gay couples will pursue marriage, because it makes so little sense for them.

How few? Oh, let’s pull a standard out of our hats: After five to ten years (Steve can pick) after gay marriage, less than half of all gay couples in a given state will be married. I suspect it will be less than 25 percent. Let’s find out.