It feels like record turnout in some of the school gyms round here. On the Democrat side, the Obamagasm is palpable. One assumes that’s drawing a lot of “independents,” too. On McCain’s fortunes, I tend to agree with Rich’s post. I can’t see an eight-point victory margin emerging, given that most of the indies will be voting for Barack, and some of the remainder may even go for Ron, or Huck. In 2000, I’d see Democrat friends of mine at McCain events: After eight years of Clinton, they were at least a little McCurious. Not this time, not after eight years of Bush, and McCain’s support for the war, and a hundred-year troop drawdown in Mesopotamia. And the Senator’s last-minute town meetings, though drawing good crowds, seem less packed than they were. He’s not the glamorous insurgent of ‘00; there’s something faute de mieux* about his comeback.

By the way, don’t count out the destabilization factor. I have a Democrat neighbor who registers as an independent only in order to damage whoever the Republican frontrunner is. In ‘92 and ‘96, he voted Buchanan. 2000, McCain. He says the problem this year is he’s not sure exactly whom he’s supposed to be voting against.

(*If you’re one of those readers who writes to complain that I’m a pretentious twit every time I use French on NRO, well, it’s for the many descendants of Quebecois mill workers in NH.)