Judging from interviews (mostly with people outside the administration but very close to it) and observation of its behavior, the strategy is clearly to approach the issue step-by-step. The first step is to persuade the public that the program has a serious problem. Once the public gets there, the next step will be to persuade it that Bush’s reform is superior to alternatives such as raising taxes. Top Republican officials say that they think that the first step is actually going quite well. Their reading of the polls has the public thinking that the problem is serious, the issue at the top of the national agenda, and the Republican disadvantage on the who-do-you-trust-to-deal-with-the-issue question shrinking. They also think that the Democratic no-crisis line has softened, especially over the last week.

Bush and his top aides have steadier nerves than most Republicans do. They demonstrated that during the 2004 campaign. I’m inclined to believe that they really are confident right now, and not just putting on a show–which doesn’t, of course, mean that their confidence will turn out to have been warranted when this is all over.

For an analysis that I think tracks quite closely with what I’m hearing from the administration, check out Patrick Ruffini’s blog.