Mark (Steyn) — Gee, a lifetime paying Manhattan’s cost-of-living premiums and I’m still not sophisticated…. (though, for the record, after Spitzer’s hooker turn, and the two-year “three way” that New Jersey’s former Governor McGreevey, his wife and the chauffeur allegedly conducted, I can only shrug at the incoming N.Y. Governor Paterson’s admission that both he and his wife conducted multi-year extra-marital affairs during a “rocky patch” in their marriage. That shrug is the first sign of the particular sophistication on the table…)

As for Obama being toast — two points: First, given the bend-over-backwards quality of many Americans’ desire to elect a black man, who is, in this case, intelligent, well-educated, and charismatic, it is, of course, possible that he will pull it off with a lovely speech, regardless of how divorced that speech might be from the reality of his own actions. Here is where his fantastic lack of any meaningful experience governing tells. If Obama had a real record as a governor, say, or even two terms in the Senate, with a few substantive pieces of legislation to his name, he could turn around and say, “Yes, I attended that church, for reasons I can explain… but look at my record. I have worked to do good for all people, and to make my state/nation stronger. Judge by my record.” Absent that record — or any record except a verbal one — he continues to have to rely on charm, and what Shelby Steele refers to as his ability to bargain with whites.

Second, if Obama gets the nomination, he may benefit from a more serious economic recession — or worse. Not because he has any useful ideas, or experience that might help. Indeed, his economic policy preferences, as stated to date, will certainly make things worse. But merely sounding compassionate when people are suffering goes a long way in an election, as I recall from the Clinton victory in 1992. Obama would benefit to the extent that John McCain allowed himself to be identified with the Bush Administration, on who’s watch things tanked — and if McCain continues to fail to discuss the economy in a strong and reassuring manner.