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Rich, I hope things are improving in Iraq, but it’s way too soon to start talking up these glimmers of hope (just as it was premature to give up on Iraq in light of July’s depressing numbers). As I explain here, civilian casualties in the month of August are likely to be typical since the bombing of the Golden Mosque. There is no instant solution to the problem (but that doesn’t mean that there is no solution), and war critics will pounce on what may turn out to be a bit too much optimism in light of a downward blip in the month after an upward blip.

ME: I urge everyone to click through and read his whole post. Here’s the bottom line:

In the meantime, we can expect that random fluctuations will drive the news. In July, that worked against the American effort to democratize Iraq (because the news was so demoralizing). In August, if current trends hold, it will work in favor. But it all averages out in the end. To know what is really happening, you have to ignore the monthly random error and focus on the longer term.