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Rich,
The defense official you quote seems to have it about right to my ears.
Whether it was the elections, the Constitution or stepping up to the plate with willing troops, the Iraqis don’t seem to do anything until they have to. (Not unlike the Northern Alliance in Afghanistan) But when they have to, they seem to move reasonably enough. The polls seem to indicate that they want us to leave within a year, and if their elected politicians ask us to leave I think we’re leaving (since we’ve been saying all along that we would if asked).
Holding those towns would keep down the violence in the short term, but would sending tens of thousands of more troops do as much to motivate Iraqis to step up to the plate?
If we were ready to commit to another 5 years then more troops would be necessary. But I don’t think 5 more years is politically possible either here or in Iraq.