Back in mid December I warbled like Admiral Ackbar that I thought the polls showing Donald Trump so shockingly ahead of Joe Biden in key swing states were a trap. I explained why using the issue of “registered” vs. “likely” voter screens, a concept that haunts me in my continuing analysis of (and perplexity at) the 2024 presidential race. So, as a predicate:
I am significantly less confident in my final contention now, with the arrival of the latest New York Times/Siena polls, which raise the matter afresh. First of all, let us summarize this poll of both the national electorate and various swing states: Boy does Joe Biden not want to be the poor bastard on the receiving end of these numbers. As Jim Geraghty aptly points out this morning, at a whopping 50–38 Trump, Nevada honestly no longer looks too terribly swingy anymore as a state, although Lucy and the Culinary Union have yanked the football away from the GOP too many times to quite believe it. The registered-voter numbers show him leading in Pennsylvania 47–44, Arizona 49–42, Michigan 49–42, and Georgia 49–39. Only in Wisconsin does he trail, by two. It’s mid May. A little more than five months remain before the election.
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