It’s not exactly from a gold-standard pollster, but a new survey has Trump up just 4 in Texas. For any Republican to have this small a lead in any poll in Texas this late in the campaign is truly extraordinary. You have to go back to Dole in 1996 and Bush in 1992 — Dole won Texas by 5 points and Bush by 3.5 points. (Romney won it by 16 points.)