Someday the rejection of the EU constitution by France and the Netherlands will be seen as the early death throes of the Western welfare state. The most obvious threat to the European “social state” is globalization–the threat of competition from Muslim and Eastern European immigrants. Yet the deeper challenge is the coming demographic crisis. All this has led to calls for paring back an unsustainable welfare state–and loud resistance to those calls.

Europe’s real problem is that the demographic future is going to burst everyone’s bubble. The right resists the flood of unassimilated non-Western immigrants, yet demographics will create enormous pressure to expand immigration. The left is determined to defend the welfare state, yet demographics will shortly render it unaffordable. The center (the French center, anyway) wants the a united Europe to stand as a world power to counterbalance the United States. Yet Europe’s demographic crash is going to sap its power and influence–while ushering in a long era of the sort of political paralysis and conflict we’re just beginning to see now.

The best solution for Europe would be a turn to the right. If Merkel defeats Schroeder in the fall, and if Sarkozy wins the French presidency in 2007, economic reforms might jump-start European growth. Growth would be the best way to counter the terrible demographic deficit Europe will shortly face. In the best of circumstances, though, the demographic pressure on Europe is going to be immense. Even were it tried, massive immigration from outside of Europe wouldn’t solve it. It’s going to take a whole lot of growth to get Europe out of its mess. And the left isn’t going to go down quietly. Too bad for us if America rejects the chance at entitlement reform the president is giving us now. A long era of political-economic gridlock over a demographically unsustainable welfare state could someday be our own.

By the way, for a quick primer on the coming demographic crunch in the U.S. and beyond, see this transcript of a recent PBS New Hour on the Graying of America. Ah, and here I see that David Brooks making the key point about Europe very effectively.