J-Pod, I don’t think your counterexamples are on point. Tom Harkin, being the senator from Iowa, did nothing in that 1988 race except make Iowa meaningless. Buchanan, meanwhile, was a one-time grassroots phenomenon, nothing like any serious candidate in the race this year. There is probably not going to be a stampede of establishment Republicans to stop Romney or Fred or Rudy or anyone else who wins in Iowa (unless it’s Ron Paul, then break out those pitchforks again).

I also wanted to share this complaint from a reader:

You guys keep saying it, but since we have never had an accelerated primary schedule, ever, your assertions therefore appear to be nothing other than your own hunches and prejudices. Please, just admit it. And should you prove to be wrong, you’ll still keep pumping out your judgments based upon personal hunches and prejudices, just like the vast majority of pundits tend to do.

Guilty as charged, I’m afraid. As is everyone who writes about politics. The nice thing about buying ink by the barrel is that you’re the one who gets to rub it in people’s faces when you’re right and then deny that it ever happened when you’re wrong.

But you can judge me and everyone else based on track record. I made a lot of good calls at the Evans-Novak Political Report (especially in congressional primaries) and then some really, really egregiously bad ones as well. I don’t pretend to be an expert on presidential races — I’m just saying that I don’t think this year’s race is so much different from those of the past. Yes, I could be proven wrong, and if so, I hope I learn something from it.

In the meantime, weigh the assertion on its merits: none of the Republican candidates has the resources at this moment to run television ads and hire field staff in 27 states (or whatever the running Feb. 5 total is). Nor is it going to happen between now and January. In fact, everyone will be short of cash after Iowa and New Hampshire. Those results will affect Nevada, South Carolina, and Florida, too. If there’s a clear early winner, that’s going to determine who stands out on February 5.