As the race approaches its last few days (thankfully for those Corner reader who couldn’t care less), here are the big unknowns:
1) What’s Blunt’s count? The Blunt people believe it’s enough to secure him a first ballot victory. If they’re right, they get the last laugh and perhaps a chance to make Blunt speaker of the House in a few years.
2) What’s the dynamic when members finally get together in person next week and discuss the race? So far it’s been a race conducted over the phone lines. When members get together they can influence each other in unpredictable ways.
3) What’s Carl Hulse do? In other words, does a reporter for a prominent paper write a story that is harmful to Blunt or Boehner (or maybe even Shadegg) and change the race? Time is beginning to run out, though, for such a story to run, and if the Wall Street Journal Hartley story today is any indication, the Blunt folks will be able to shrug off any stories as merely re-cycling things that people generally already knew.
4) How does Blunt’s retention of whip play? He must be gaining something from it, or I assume he wouldn’t be doing it. But there are also reports of anger at him for continuing to hold the post while he goes for leader. Does he reach a point where it obviously begins to hurt more than help?
5) Finally, how scared are members? Do they think they have a real political problem this year, or do they think they are going to get by fine? Do they even begin to think that there are being asked to be self-flagellating and get their backs up about all the calls for reform from inside the Beltway?






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