I have just been reading Bill Buckley’s most recent column:

“Some observers … conclude that the war to change Iraq’s society has not been won, and cannot be won without in investment of time and resources we are not willing to make in Iraq. Other challenges loom, in North Korea and in Iran, which will tax us contingently, on a larger scale than the Saddam/Iraq war. These will need to take precedence.
“Mr. Bush is entitled to maintain, doggedly and persuasively, that he took the right steps—up through the overthrow of Saddam and the exposure of an armory without weapons of mass destruction. From that point on, the challenge required more than his deployable resources. His political reputation will rest on his success in making that point and ceding realistically to realities we are not going to cope with, and ought not to attempt to cope with.”

This is exactly right. However, Bill does not offer an estimate of the likelihood of that success. I am more reckless than Bill (translate: have far, far less of a reputation at stake), so here I go with my estimate: low to zero.

Earlier today I was reading the Op Ed pages of my New York Post. Top of page–George Will:

“When violence surges, if U.S. forces take the lead in suppressing it they delay the day when Iraqi forces will be competent. If U.S. forces hold back, they are blamed by an Iraqi population that is being infantilized by displacing all responsibilities onto the American occupation…”

Bottom of page–Ralph Peters:

“Iraqis won’t be fully content for years, of course. They desperately want to be part of the modern world — and that’s going to take a long time. Meanwhile… Significant problems remain, no question about it. Iraq was a ruined country. But things are going far better than you’ve been told.”

These two guys are coming at it from different viewpoints, of course. Will is the history and policy wonk, observing from afar. Peters is the old trooper, and is actually on the ground in Iraq with our soldiers. There’s a lot to be said for cool, distant objectivity, informed by history; there’s a lot to be said for being there, among people doing things, seeing and smelling the realities. Then again, distance, comfort, and having too much 20th-century history stuck in your head can warp your judgment; but so can loyalty to an institution you have loved and served all your life.

Well, I’m with Bill Buckley and George Will. This pig’s ear is never going to be made into a silk purse, not by any methods or expenditures the American people are willing to countenance. The only questions worth asking about Iraq at this point are: How does GWB get out of this with the least damage to US interests, and to his party’s future prospects? I wish I had some answers.