The way the spin war on this thing is playing out, he probably has to claim victory by Saturday or it’s going to look like he doesn’t have as much juice as advertised and get hurt. That obviously could help Boehner. But given that Boehner’s public vote count is lower than Blunt’s, he might not establish a commanding position either. (I’m putting aside the non-public counts–if you tally up Blunt’s, Boehner’s, and Jonah’s, the entire conference is supposedly already spoken for). It’s possible that this could be a drawn-out, unsatisfying race, with surprises at the end. On the other hand, maybe Blunt really is on the verge of locking it all up. We’ll know when we see the names of his 100-plus supporters.