I don’t know what to make of the Kremlinology around . Maybe everything is fine between him and Trump; maybe if it’s not fine, it will blow over. But there’s no doubt that in everything he’s said about what Vance posted on X after the election.

The merits of the case Vance made aside, posting what was, in effect, a dissent from was a major risk with no upside. Vance could have just posted that the election was terrible and that he looked forward to continuing to fight the good fight with the president, and left his opposition to the war implicit, or for journalists to write about in behind-the-scenes accounts. Then, he could have talked more openly about his opposition as circumstances allowed over time (perhaps Trump himself will eventually turn against the war).

But now he may have disrupted his relationship with Trump, or at least created public speculation about it (which is never helpful), with no corresponding benefit that I can discern.

“Never tweet” they used to say years ago, a trope that can be elaborated in this case to, “Never tweet if you think your boss, the president of the United States, whose endorsement you need, might resent it.”