I’ve just gotten off the phone with Professor David Paleologos, who conductsthe Suffolk University/WHDH poll in New Hampshire. I asked him why his poll is the only one showing Romney ahead. Here is what he said, hastily transcribed by me:

We all have different methodologies. I think the difference will be measured in the independents. We believe that this most accurately reflects where New Hampshire is going…I think the difference is there have been broad-brush gifts of independents to McCain. Our polling suggests that there are certain independents who are Romney’s…There are a number of things working against McCain. If young voters are favoring Romney, that’s going to offset a piece of the independents going for McCain. I’ve seen reports that independents are supporting McCain two-to-one — I’m not seeing that in my poll. Also working against McCain is the fact that he’s competing against Obama for independent voters. I think we all, as pollsters, are trying to present the best-balanced statisitical model we can. But obviously, someone’s going to have an uneven distribution.

Paleologos also acknowledged that the poll has a 4.38 percent margin of error. That means it is also consistent with a five-point McCain victory. But I should add that McCain’s people are a bit worried right now about the Obama factor. If Independents go with Obama over Clinton instead of voting in the GOP primary, McCain could be denied a crucial victory tomorrow.