About two months from now, on Jan. 3, the nomination battle begins with the Iowa caucuses. For the Democrats, that could well be the first and last day of the race. If Clinton wins, it’s over. Even if she loses by a small margin, it probably won’t be enough to derail her.

But how much longer will the GOP race last? Perhaps I’m not fully appreciating how the new calendar will change the basic patterns of presidential races, or the strange mood of the 2008 electorate, or some other factor that promises to warp normal political space/time. When I look at the likely calendar — Iowa, Jan. 3; Wyoming, Jan. 5; New Hampshire, Jan. 8; Michigan, Jan. 15; Nevada and South Carolina, Jan. 19; Florida, Jan. 29 — I don’t see any way for Rudy Giuliani to make it through all the way to Super-Duper Tuesday simply by waiting to win Florida. He’s got to win New Hampshire, or least Michigan a week later. If Romney sweeps the early contests, he’ll gain gobs of free media in states where voters are just starting to pay attention, and no one, Giuliani included, really has enough money to run media campaigns in the big states.