From well-informed e-mailer:
Subject: your House take
I’d add IN 08, IA 01, NC 11, NY 24, OH 15, OH 18 to the “gone” list.
In the “almost gone” slot I’d add CT 04, IN 09, OH 01.
One can’t underestimate how much of a disaster OH is gonna be. In addition to the nat’l climate, you’ve got the Ney case, the Taft unpopularity/scandals and two GOPers at top of ticket who are just plummeting in the polls. Blackwell, especially, is seemingly trying to burn the house down out there.
NY 24 is a similar situation in the sense of top of ticket problems. Spitzer and Clinton will bring along Dems; folks like Walsh, Reynolds and Sweeney may survive the coattails, but an open seat in a marginal GOP district (with a solid Dem candidate) is extremely vulnerable.
Dems have probably cracked the code on Taylor in NC 11, running a culturally conservative candidate (Shuler) against him who can play in rural areas. Beyond these inroads, where his name id and status as a football player will help, Shuler can count on a strong support from the Dem-leaning population center of the district, the increasingly bohemian (and charming) Asheville. Add in whiff of scandal around Taylor and his mediocre campaign skills and this seat flips.
IA 01 is a Dem-leaning seat that has voted for Clinton (twice), Clinton and Kerry. Without Nussle running, and in a bad environment for GOP, Dems pick it up.
I know Hostettler in IN 08 has always pulled it out, but I don’t know of any Republican who hasn’t already written this seat off. I don’t even know if the NRCC is still up out there.






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