Not so fast. Really. If next year had a conventional primary structure, I would say I couldn’t see a path to nomination for him. But it’s true that with California, Florida, New York and New Jersey all voting by February 5, there might be a new political reality at play in the Republican primary season. Certainly somebody was going to run according to that theory and not depend on Iowa, New Hampshire to serve as a slingshot to South Carolina and thereby to the nomination. It appears the frontrunner will be adopting that strategy.

Perhaps it would be a Pyrrhic victory for Rudy to win the nomination because a Republican will need a pro-life base to generate enthusiasm for election day in November. On the other hand, if he can really appeal to the kinds of independents who voted for Perot in 1992 and 1996, then there may be something else working in his favor. But that’s a different story.