The war news is coming in fast and furious.
Let me first begin by noting that a month into the hostilities which started in Gaza, and a couple weeks after the outbreak of the Hezbollah war, the S&P 500 is actually about unchanged with a nice little multi-day move right in here, based on good profits, a solid economic outlook, and growing expectations that the Fed’s restraint cycle is nearing an end.
My spiritual pal, Mayer Rothschild, is right: ‘Buy on the cannons, sell on the trumpets.’
Another spiritual friend of mine, Joseph Schumpeter, is also right: low tax rates, strong profits, and plenty of bank credit for business entrepreneurs is a great combination for economic growth. Mike Darda calls this ‘the wellspring of entrepreneurial capitalism, innovation and wealth creation in the dynamic capitalist system.’
Relative to record earnings, and moderate, normal interest rates, U.S. stocks are significantly undervalued according to gurus like Art Laffer and Elaine Garzarelli. I totally agree.
Barring a $100 oil price, from some sort of bizarre Iranian action’”which can never be ruled out’”stocks and the economy will outperform the usual chorus of pessimism. It’s still the greatest story never told.
But, I digress from the war. Here are a couple points that stand out for me from all the news reports:
First, is a wonderful headline from the AP: ’Hezbollah Says Israeli Response a Surprise.’
Oh really? Tch-tch. It’s called fighting for your life. It’s called fighting for freedom and democracy. It’s called fighting against a bunch of terrorist thugs who want to wipe you off the face of the earth. It’s called fighting to enforce U.N. resolutions which Israel observed. It’s called searching for peace, but then fighting for your life when your enemy refuses to engage in any civilized peacekeeping.
The second point is, ’There can no longer be a Hezbollah,’ according to Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, in a Der Spiegel interview published today. She goes on to say, ’[T]here is a very significant difference between us and our enemies: We are defending ourselves against anyone who attacks us and use every means possible to prevent hitting civilians’






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