A few days before Eric Cantor lost his Virginia congressional district’s GOP nomination last year, his campaign touted the finding of an internal poll. It showed Cantor, the majority leader of the House, beating his challenger, Dave Brat, 62 percent to 28 percent. As good as this 34-point lead looked, its release signaled that Cantor sensed trouble. He was right to fret: On June 10, voters favored Brat by eleven points.
Cantor’s defeat marked one of the most startling upsets in recent political history, and official Washington, worried whenever an incumbent falls, wondered what went wrong. Had Cantor neglected his constituents? Had he irritated conservatives over immigration? Had late-deciding voters broken for Brat in the final hours? Whatever the factors, just about everybody agreed on one thing: The pundits didn’t see it coming.
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