The 2026 midterm elections look likely to go badly for Republicans. Appearances aren’t deceptive; the portents are grim. But the conventional wisdom may be underrating the possibility of an election cycle that denies Democrats the big win they envision.
The party in the White House always starts off at a disadvantage, absent highly unusual circumstances such as those of 2002, 1998, 1962, or 1934. Turnout is lower in midterm elections, which favors the angrier party that can unify voters against the president. Special elections have thus far gone so badly for the GOP that Donald Trump pressured New York’s Elise Stefanik to remain in the House and withdrew her nomination to be U.N. ambassador. A frustrated Stefanik has been mulling a run for governor of her state instead.
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