A number of NR readers have written me or the magazine to complain of what they term my “pessimism” concerning Vietnam. I hope it has become clear over the years that my aim on this page is to carry on an objective analysis of events, not to give pep talks. My estimate of the Vietnam situation has nothing to do with either pessimism or optimism. It is either true (i.e., more probable on the basis of the evidence at hand than alternative estimates, which is as true as you can hope to get in these matters) or false. Let me review the Vietnam situation once more, as it is mirrored in the draft agreement published October 26 by North Vietnam and confirmed by Henry Kissinger as “substantially accurate.”
How do the local peasants know who won the battle and who lost? The ones who ran away, they figure, are the losers; the ones who hold the field are the winners. According to the draft agreement, all U.S. troops are to leave South Vietnam within sixty days of signing. There is no corresponding obligation on the North Vietnamese.
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