Republican supporters of abortion rights delight the media every four years by raising a ruckus over the party’s pro-life stance. But can they make a credible case that it is political poison? Your favorite magazine recently sponsored a Capitol Hill debate on this very question. Not: Is the GOP’s pro-life plank morally right? Not: Is it politically practicable? But simply and solely, Is it an electoral handicap? The best advocates on both sides were recruited, and they made their strongest arguments. The result was a spirited fight that your favorite moderator (silently) awarded to the pro-life team.
At the outset, however, the American Enterprise Institute’s polling expert (and our umpire on public opinion) Karlyn Bowman presented a genuinely striking fact: public opinion on the abortion issue has been remarkably stable since 1972. A strong majority believes a woman should be able to choose abortion when her health is endangered but not in less threatening circumstances. A large majority believes that abortion is morally wrong, but also that it should be a choice in limited cases anyway. Mrs. Bowman explained that when people hold such seemingly contradictory views, their tendency is to withdraw from the debate. And, sure enough, in the last six national elections, abortion was the most important issue for only 7 to 13 per cent of voters. They favored the GOP. This November, a Los Angeles Times national poll found that 9 per cent of voters listed abortion as one of their top two concerns—and 60 per cent of them voted for Bob Dole. Furthermore, as Mrs. Bowman explained later in the debate, “the gender gap has many complex causes— abortion is not one of them.”
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