On the Scene

AS South Africa’s first democratic government passed the mid-way stage of its first term in October, the overwhelming fact was that while the “miracle” transition continues to be celebrated abroad, at home the honeymoon is well and truly over. Again and again, visiting celebrities (Henry Kissinger being a recent example) say how marvelous the whole situation is and comment that they just can’t understand why South African businessmen are so massively pessimistic. The government has thoroughly cottoned onto this and is determined to stop the purveyors of pessimism—“the non-patriotic section of the bourgeoisie,” as they are termed. Recently, the deputy president (and shoo-in future president), Thabo Mbeki, pounced upon a businessman who had sent pessimistic press clippings about car hijackings and the horrendous murder rate (nine times that of New York) to his friends abroad. He was hurriedly disowned by his company and forced into early retirement. Other businessmen are more circumspect—it passes without comment that most of them are willing to make statements to the press “on condition that their anonymity is respected” or even “for fear of reprisals if their identity is revealed.” Others, when pestered by eyes-aglow foreign visitors about why they aren’t more cheerful, tend merely to say, If things are so good, how come things are so bad?

The visitors have a point. After a decade (1982-92) in which falls in GDP were more frequent than rises, the economy grew by 1.3 per cent in 1993, 2.7 per cent in 1994, and 3.3 per cent in 1995; growth will probably be around 3 per cent in 1996. Between July 1994 and December 1995 over $7 billion of foreign capital flowed into the country, ending a ten-year period when capital outflows averaged around $1.2 billion a year. Moreover, this economic recovery has occurred in the context of falling inflation (now around 8.5 per cent). At the same time, apartheid has gone; race relations are more relaxed; there is no more detention without trial, house arrest, or banning; the press is freer than for a generation; and the country is led by a gentle and enormously popular president who enjoys majority support among all races, the first time such a thing has ever been achieved.

AS South Africa’s first democratic government passed the mid-way stage of its first term in October, the overwhelming fact was that while the “miracle” transition continues to be celebrated abroad, at home the honeymoon is well and truly over. Again and again, visiting celebrities (Henry Kissinger being a recent example) say how marvelous the whole situation is and comment that they just can’t understand why South African businessmen are so massively pessimistic. The government has thoroughly cottoned onto this and is determined to stop the purveyors of pessimism—“the non-patriotic section of the bourgeoisie,” as they are termed. Recently, the deputy president (and shoo-in future president), Thabo Mbeki, pounced upon a businessman who had sent pessimistic press clippings about car hijackings and the horrendous murder rate (nine times that of New York) to his friends abroad. He was hurriedly disowned by his company and forced into early retirement. Other businessmen are more circumspect—it passes without comment that most of them are willing to make statements to the press “on condition that their anonymity is respected” or even “for fear of reprisals if their identity is revealed.” Others, when pestered by eyes-aglow foreign visitors about why they aren’t more cheerful, tend merely to say, If things are so good, how come things are so bad?

The visitors have a point. After a decade (1982-92) in which falls in GDP were more frequent than rises, the economy grew by 1.3 per cent in 1993, 2.7 per cent in 1994, and 3.3 per cent in 1995; growth will probably be around 3 per cent in 1996. Between July 1994 and December 1995 over $7 billion of foreign capital flowed into the country, ending a ten-year period when capital outflows averaged around $1.2 billion a year. Moreover, this economic recovery has occurred in the context of falling inflation (now around 8.5 per cent). At the same time, apartheid has gone; race relations are more relaxed; there is no more detention without trial, house arrest, or banning; the press is freer than for a generation; and the country is led by a gentle and enormously popular president who enjoys majority support among all races, the first time such a thing has ever been achieved.

RJ

About the Author

R. W. Johnson

Mr. Johnson is a journalist and historian based in South Africa. His latest book is South Africa’s Brave New World: The Beloved Country Since the End of Apartheid.