In June 2005, after months of fierce debate over Social Security reform, the chairman of the National Governors Association (NGA) issued a sobering prediction. “Long before Social Security goes bankrupt,” said Virginia Democrat Mark Warner, “Medicaid is going to bankrupt all the states.” An exaggeration, perhaps, but the health-care legislation being mulled on Capitol Hill would make Warner’s prediction more realistic.
According to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the bill passed by the House on November 7 would boost state Medicaid spending by a net total of $34 billion between 2010 and 2019. It would raise the Medicaid-eligibility threshold to 150 percent of the federal poverty line; force states to preserve their existing levels of Medicaid coverage through 2019 and also maintain current coverage levels among certain children enrolled in the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP); and require states to move some children from CHIP to Medicaid.
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