Gloomy fortnight for the GOP. All recent polls show Dukakis now leading Bush in most parts of the country, but doing far better against Bush in matchups on a Dukakis-Southerner ticket (Nunn, Gore) or Dukakis-Midwesterner ticket (Glenn) than with Jesse Jackson as running-mate…. At moment it looks as if Democrats will hold the Senate, perhaps even increase their majority. Sen. John Kerry (Mass.), Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee chairman, cautions against overconfidence but says “on paper, things are going well.”… His opposite number, Sen. Rudy Bosch-witz (Minn.), admits for Republicans to win they’ll have to get all the breaks…. Kevin Phillips’s late spring soundings: Democrats will emerge with one-to three-seat gain in Senate; five to six House pickups; one or two additional State Houses…. Republicans hoped Reubin Askew’s decision not to run for Senate in Florida would help. But late polls show Insurance Commissioner Bill Gunter ahead of Republican Rep. Connie Mack, most likely GOP candidate…. In Ohio, Sen. Howard Metzenbaum has lengthened his lead over Cleveland Mayor George Voinovich to 25 points…. In Nebraska, where appointed Republican Sen. David Karnes ran strong in GOP primary, he continues to trail popular former Democratic Gov. Bob Kerrey…Two conservatives are in New Mexico’s Republican primary field June 7: James “Corky” Morris (pro-Contra, pro-SDI, pro-strong defense) and former Department of Interior aide Rick Montoya. Winner will take on freshman Democrat Jeff Bingaman, considered to the left of his New Mexico constituents. (Bingaman not only voted against Robert Bork, he also opposed Chief Justice William Rehnquist.) . . . In New Jersey, Republican challenger Pete Dawkins lost points with GOP loyalists by his over-enthusiastic call for Ed Meese’s resignation… On gubernatorial front, Republicans are shaken by decision of Gov. John Sununu of New Hampshire to step down after this term. (Sununu has nine children to put through college.) Candidate of New Hampshire Republican conservatives is Rep. Judd Gregg.
Who will be Michael Dukakis’s running-mate? Kevin Phillips agrees with George Bush campaign manager Lee Atwater that if Dukakis picks a Northern liberal Veep, Bush will win almost all of the South and most of the Border states . . . Which brings up Sen. Nunn. Nunn is, in Joseph Sobran’s phrase, “growing.” Congressional quarterly points out that whereas Nunn voted with Teddy Kennedy, the liberal’s liberal, on only four of 12 key votes in 1984, last year he was with Kennedy on 11 of 14 issues.
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