Look at it another way. It’s not only how well Ronald Reagan does, but who will be voting for whom in what new district that will determine whether the GOP takes over the House of Representatives in 1982. With the census figures now out, this is known: 17 seats will be shifted from the heavily Democratic “Frost Belt” to the heavily Republican Sunbelt. . . . Many districts will also be redrawn within states, imperiling “between thirty and forty” now solidly Democratic seats, according to Robert Teeter of Market Opinion Research. . . . Very hard hit will be the Black Caucus in the House, most of whose members represent decaying central-city areas from which blacks and Hispanics are moving away, among them such well known black leaders as Reps. William Clay (Mo.), Shirley Chisholm and Charles Rangel (N.Y.), Louis Stokes (Ohio), John Conyers and John Dingell (Mich.), and Parren Mitchell (Md.)—all Democrats. . . . On the political side, a recent Richard Wirthlin poll shows 39 per cent of Americans now identifying themselves as Republican, 40 per cent as Democratic. A year ago there was a twenty-point spread, 50 per cent Democratic to 30 per cent Republican. Says Republican National Chairman Richard Richards, after looking at those figures, “I look at the future of the Republican Party as better than any time in my lifetime. And the reason is Ronald Reagan.” … A lot of Democratic congressmen feel the same way. The Washington Post quotes one Southern Democrat, now being wooed by the White House on the tax-cut measure: “I’d sure rather have Reagan not campaigning against me than Tip O’Neill— or any other Democrat for that matter —campaigning for me.” . . . O’Neill was beside himself when he left the White House the other day. “1 think they [the White House] are bubbling eppervescent [sic] with smugness,” he sputtered.
“It’s the sheer greed of striking Civil Servants that nauseates me.”




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