On the accounts of a number of pundits, the liveliest presidential campaign in town is that of Gerald R. Ford. That old gang of his is milling around, figuring the possibilities and spoiling for a rematch first with Reagan and then with Carter. Principal players in the behind-the-scenes maneuvering are Stu Spencer (of Spencer. Roberts fame in California politics), Jack Marsh (a former congressman from Virginia, later a Ford White House aide), and the redoubtable Melvin Laird. Rumors are swirling now that the former President has cleared his schedule for the spring primary season and is poised to propel himself into the fray. By the time this column finds print, his decision will be bumping up against a wall of practical deadlines.
D-Day for the former President is March 19, the day after the Illinois primary. Conventional wisdom has put the date months earlier. Indeed, we have seen late-February press reports to the effect that so many filing dates have passed that the gate has already been closed to late starters. (Both George Bush and Howard Baker, not surprisingly, have been soothing their backers with this line.) A close look at the numbers suggests otherwise, however. By the time Illinois rolls around, only nine of the 35 GOP primaries will have been held and even if Reagan continues to run up victories, it does not follow automatically that he will be running up an insurmountable lead. In the first consideration, most of the primaries award delegates on a proportional basis. Thus in New Hampshire, while Reagan crushed his nearest opponent by more than 2 to 1, he captured just over 50 per cent of the delegates. The other delegates were awarded to Bush, Baker, and (pending a recount) Anderson, all of whom can be expected to join a stop-Reagan and maybe a push-Ford movement at some point along the campaign trail. (The tail-enders, by contrast, who managed to win no delegates in New Hampshire, represent fundamentally proReagan constituencies. Connally. Crane, and Dole fall into this category.)
Comments