MENTION health-care reform to almost any assembly of Republicans on Capitol Hill these days, and you will be met with a sigh of exhaustion or indifference. For most returning lawmakers the topic conjures up a near-death experience best not risked again any time soon.
But the issue is not going away. The structural problems with the healthcare system that triggered public anxiety are still there. To be sure, with the economy growing, and with inflation low, fewer today worry about losing their coverage, and health costs are moderating. But that won’t last long. Medical prices continue to rise at about double the general inflation rate, so even a modest upturn in inflation will mean a sharp increase in business costs, followed by boardroom bleating for the government to “do something.” The next recession will mean another surge in the number of uninsured and—politically more important— more middle-class Americans who fear their families will become uninsured. Furthermore, newly elected Republicans pledged to enact drastic budget cuts and balance the budget will soon have to deal with Medicare and Medicaid spending.
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